Spotify’s New Reality: Why the “Big Three” are Winning the Streaming War Again

For nearly a decade, the narrative of the music business was one of inevitable decline for the giants. Year after year, the “Big Three” major labels and Merlin saw their combined slice of the Spotify pie shrink as independent DIY artists flooded the platform. But according to Spotify’s 2025 annual report, that trend has officially hit a wall.

The Great Reversal

Between 2017 and 2024, the combined market share of Universal, Sony, Warner, and Merlin plummeted from 87% to 71%. It was a 1,600 basis point drop that many thought was permanent. However, in 2025, the “Empire” fought back:

The Gain: The majors-plus-Merlin cohort grew their share to 72%.
The Context: This marks the first year-on-year growth for this group since Spotify went public.
The Losers: The non-major/non-Merlin sector—which includes giants like Believe and DistroKid—saw its share dip to 28%.

Superstar Dominance

The shift was fueled by a relentless grip on the global Top 10. In 2025, major labels represented every single one of the Top 10 global songs. Sony’s The Orchard led the charge, distributing the year’s biggest album, Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS. Meanwhile, UMG secured the #2 spot with the K-Pop Demon Hunters soundtrack and the #3 spot with Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft.

The M&A Factor

While superstar hits move the needle, the majors are also buying their way back to growth. Universal’s 100% acquisition of [PIAS] in late 2024 and its pending nine-figure deal for Downtown Music Holdings are strategic land grabs designed to swallow the “middle-class” artist growth that was previously leaking to independent distributors.

Merlin’s own expansion—bringing in massive regional players like OneRPM—has also fortified the cohort. As the dust settles on 2025, the message is clear: the path to the top is once again narrowing, and the industry’s biggest players are more entrenched than they’ve been in a decade.