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The Weeknd has finalized a rumored $1 billion partnership with the investment firm Lyric Capital, backed by both his publishing and recording rights. While the massive valuation has turned heads across the industry, new analysis from research firm Luminate suggests the deal is a strategic win for both the artist and his new partners.
A New Model for Equity
According to Luminate, the deal represents a shift away from traditional catalog sales. Instead of a total buyout, the structure suggests that The Weeknd and his manager are maintaining their majority stakes. The partnership reportedly offers a 25% equity stake to Lyric Capital, while the remaining 75% of the $1 billion was raised through debt. This allows the artist to unlock massive capital while retaining a significant share of his creative assets.
Defying the “Decay Curve”
The strength of the deal is supported by The Weeknd’s unprecedented streaming data. In 2025, he secured 19.3 billion global on-demand audio (ODA) streams, making him the fourth largest artist in the world behind only Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, and Drake.
However, the most valuable aspect for investors may be his “decay curves.” In the music industry, hits typically earn the most in their first year before settling into a lower, steady average. The Weeknd’s catalog consistently defies this trend. His 2015 hit “I Can’t Feel My Face” earned 117.5 million U.S. ODA streams last year—a 57% increase from its performance five years ago.
Why the Investment Holds Up
Luminate’s findings suggest that because The Weeknd’s earliest hits continue to trend upward rather than fading away, his catalog provides a rare level of long-term financial security. By leveraging these “decay-defying” assets, the deal sets a new precedent for how modern superstars can monetize their history without surrendering their future.
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